Key constituencies shaping Bihar’s electoral battle: Samastipur and Begusarai

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen to begin his Bihar election campaign from Samastipur, a district deeply tied to the legacy of Karpoori Thakur — the leader who gave a voice to the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). This move reflects the growing importance of EBC politics in Bihar’s elections. Comprising 112 castes and making up nearly 36 percent of the state’s population, the EBCs have become a major factor in deciding electoral outcomes. Their rise in politics is linked to Thakur’s efforts to uplift backward communities during his tenure as Bihar’s chief minister.

During his first term, Karpoori Thakur formed a commission to study the conditions of backward classes. Later, when he returned to power in the late 1970s, he implemented its recommendations. This marked the beginning of formal recognition and representation for EBCs in Bihar’s political structure. Today, only about a dozen of these 112 EBC castes are large enough to attract focused attention from political parties. As a result, most political outreach to this community involves heavy use of symbolism — and few figures represent EBC aspirations better than Thakur.

Samastipur: The heart of EBC symbolism

Samastipur district, with its ten Assembly constituencies, holds historical and emotional importance for EBC voters. However, it has never been a traditional Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stronghold. In the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP managed a perfect strike rate in the two seats it contested here, but its alliance partner Janata Dal (United) — JD(U) — remained the more dominant force. When JD(U) later broke away from the BJP ahead of the 2015 elections, the BJP’s presence in Samastipur collapsed, winning no seats at all. The JD(U), along with its then allies Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, swept all 10 constituencies in the district.

By the 2020 elections, alliances had shifted again. The BJP and JD(U) reunited, and their combined performance showed improvement — winning five out of ten seats, while RJD secured four. This back-and-forth trend shows that voters in Samastipur do not remain fixed to one party but respond to changing alliances and local leadership. With EBC voters playing a decisive role, the BJP’s strategy to launch its campaign here seems aimed at reconnecting with this influential section through the symbolic image of Karpoori Thakur.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Karpoori village underlines this outreach effort. His choice of venue sends a clear political signal — that his government values the legacy of Thakur and aims to appeal to the sentiments of EBC communities across Bihar. By invoking Thakur’s name, the BJP hopes to connect emotionally with voters who see him as a symbol of empowerment and fairness.

Begusarai: The district that swings

On the same day, Prime Minister Modi also held an election rally in Begusarai — a district known for its unpredictable voting patterns. Begusarai’s electoral history is marked by frequent swings between rival political alliances. In the 2010 Assembly elections, the BJP-JD(U) combine dominated the region, winning six out of seven seats. But just five years later, in the 2015 polls, the tables turned completely. The RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance swept all seven seats, showing how quickly voter loyalties can shift.

The 2020 Assembly elections continued this trend of unpredictability. The JD(U) failed to win a single seat in Begusarai, while the BJP and RJD managed to secure two seats each. This pattern makes Begusarai one of Bihar’s true battleground districts — where every election brings a new result and no party can take victory for granted. For political strategists, it represents both a challenge and an opportunity.

The Prime Minister’s rally in Begusarai, therefore, served a dual purpose. On one hand, it aimed to reach out to EBC voters like those in Samastipur. On the other, it was a tactical move to establish an early presence in a district where electoral outcomes often depend on last-minute momentum and strong local campaigning.

By targeting both Samastipur and Begusarai on the same day, the BJP is trying to cover two crucial aspects of Bihar’s political equation — the emotional connection with the EBC community and the need to secure floating voters in a swing region. The combination of these two strategies may help shape early perceptions ahead of the state’s full campaign rollout.

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A calculated start to Bihar’s political battle

As the election season gains pace, these opening rallies reflect the BJP’s understanding of Bihar’s evolving social and political dynamics. The choice of Samastipur emphasizes respect for the EBC legacy, while Begusarai symbolizes the fight for the undecided and the politically restless. For Prime Minister Modi, this approach blends emotional symbolism with strategic foresight.

With Bihar’s politics heavily influenced by caste identities, shifting alliances, and historical loyalties, every region carries a unique message. Samastipur tells the story of empowerment through social justice; Begusarai tells the story of change through voter volatility. Together, they represent the two sides of Bihar’s complex political landscape — one rooted in identity, the other driven by uncertainty.

As campaigning continues, the outcomes in these two districts will likely hint at the broader direction of the state’s politics. Whether the BJP’s symbolic outreach and early rallies will succeed in reshaping Bihar’s voter map remains to be seen. But what is clear is that both Samastipur and Begusarai will once again play decisive roles in writing the next chapter of Bihar’s democratic story.